In recent years, you’ve likely heard warnings about ultra-processed foods (UPFs)—things like packaged snacks, soda, instant noodles, and store-bought baked goods. While scientists agree these foods aren’t great for us, new research shows that how we measure what people eat makes a huge difference in calculating the actual health risks.
Here is a simple breakdown of what a major review of 25 human health studies tells us.
1. High UPF Diets Link to Higher Health Risks
When comparing people who eat the most ultra-processed foods to those who eat the least, researchers found a clear jump in several major health problems:
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High Triglycerides (unhealthy blood fats): +47% higher risk
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Low “Good” HDL Cholesterol: +43% higher risk
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Type 2 Diabetes: +37% higher risk
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High Blood Pressure: +32% higher risk
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Obesity: +32% higher risk
In plain terms: heavy reliance on packaged, ultra-processed products consistently raises your chances of developing metabolic and heart-related conditions.
2. Why the Specific Risk Numbers Are Tricky
Even though the connection between UPFs and poor health is real, the exact numbers aren’t set in stone for a few reasons:
The Measurement Problem
The biggest issue comes down to how dietary surveys ask questions. Depending on which food questionnaire scientists used, the calculated health risks varied by more than 50%. Because different surveys classify processed foods differently, two studies might look at the exact same diet and come away with very different risk percentages.
Eating a Little vs. A Lot
Interestingly, when scientists looked at small differences in total intake volume, the overall risk level didn’t change drastically. This suggests that the study’s measurement tool had a bigger impact on the results than small changes in how much UPF someone actually ate.
Quality of Evidence
Using a standardized scientific rating system called NutriGrade, the overall strength of the available evidence was rated as “less than satisfying.” Because these studies track people over time without controlling every meal, other lifestyle factors – like overall exercise, stress, and income – can cloud the results.
The Bottom Line
Eating less ultra-processed food is a smart move for your health. The overall trend clearly shows higher risks for diabetes, weight gain, and high blood pressure.
However, because food surveys vary so widely, we shouldn’t get hung up on exact percentage estimates—or assume every single packaged food carries the exact same level of risk.